Determinants of Agricultural Exports in India: A Commodity Level Analysis
By Baikunth Roy | 31-12-2019 | Page: 132-137
Abstract
The export opportunity allows the agricultural sector to expand productive capacity to the full extent. An attempt is made in the present study to specify and estimate the factors affecting agricultural exports of India at the commodity level. The major exportable crops used in the study are rice, wheat, tea, coffee, sugar, cotton lint and tobacco. The literature surveyed clearly shows that Indian exports are influenced by a number of factors. A double log-linear regression analysis has been carried out to understand the role of different factors in affecting agricultural exports across commodities from 1980-2010. The estimated equations for rice shows that lagged export, lagged stock and world income played a predominant role. In the case of wheat, as India does not export much of wheat and there is wide year to year fluctuations, it is mainly influenced by lagged export and lagged stock with the government. Like wheat, sugar export is also influenced mainly by lagged export and production. The estimates of cotton lint reveal that it is influenced by a number of factors like lagged export, production, relative prices, openness and exchange rate. However, world income does not play important role in influencing cotton exports. Factors like, lagged export, production, world income and exchange rate affect tobacco export positively and significantly. Tea export is influenced by lagged export, production, openness and exchange rate. In case of coffee, lagged export, production and world income play the dominant role in affecting coffee exports of India and the coefficients have theoretically consistent signs. The findings of the article validate the hypothesis that the impact of various factors on agricultural exports may not be the same for all commodities.